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Formal Modeling in Social Science
Carol Mershon and Olga Shvetsova
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A formal model in the social sciences builds explanations when it structures the reasoning underlying a theoretical argument, opens venues for controlled experimentation, and can lead to hypotheses. Yet more importantly, models evaluate theory, build theory, and enhance conjectures. Formal Modeling in Social Science addresses the varied helpful roles of formal models and goes further to take up more fundamental considerations of epistemology and methodology.
The authors integrate the exposition of the epistemology and the methodology of modeling and argue that these two reinforce each other. They illustrate the process of designing an original model suited to the puzzle at hand, using multiple methods in diverse substantive areas of inquiry. The authors also emphasize the crucial, though underappreciated, role of a narrative in the progression from theory to model.
Transparency of assumptions and steps in a model means that any analyst will reach equivalent predictions whenever she replicates the argument. Hence, models enable theoretical replication, essential in the accumulation of knowledge. Formal Modeling in Social Science speaks to scholars in different career stages and disciplines and with varying expertise in modeling.
Cover
Title Page
Copyright Page
Dedication
Contents
Acknowledgments
One. Introduction
Two. Epistemology
Three. Methodology
Four. Community Effort
Five. Industry Regulation
Six. Setting the Agenda to Manipulate the Outcome (with Benjamin Farrer)
Seven. Games and Uncertainty in U.S. Criminal Justice Systems (with Andrei Zhirnov)
Eight. The Role of Modeling in How We Know What We Know