None of the Above: Protest Voting in Latin American Democracies

Cohen, Mollie J.

doi:doi:10.3998/mpub.12738341

Mollie J. Cohen

Open Access

Around the world each year, millions of citizens turn out to vote but leave their ballots empty or spoil them. Increasingly, campaigns have emerged that promote "invalid" votes like these. Why do citizens choose to cast blank and spoiled votes? And how do campaigns mobilizing the invalid vote influence this decision? None of the Above answers these questions using evidence from presidential and gubernatorial elections in eighteen Latin American democracies. Author Mollie J. Cohen draws on a broad range of methods and sources, incorporating data from electoral management bodies, nationally representative surveys, survey experiments, focus groups, semi-structured interviews, and news sources.

Contrary to received wisdom, this book shows that most citizens cast blank or spoiled votes in presidential elections on purpose. By participating in invalid vote campaigns, citizens can voice their concerns about low-quality candidates while also expressing a preference for high-quality democracy. Campaigns promoting blank and spoiled votes come about more often, and succeed at higher rates, when incumbent politicians undermine the quality of elections. Surprisingly, invalid vote campaigns can shore up the quality of democracy in the short term. None of the Above shows that swings in blank and spoiled vote rates can serve as a warning about the trajectory of a country's democracy.

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The figure presents bars plotting the average values of four measures of democratic quality for years immediately prior to and following a presidential invalid vote campaign.

Measures of Democratic Quality Pre- and Post-Invalid Vote Campaigns

From Chapter 7

Figure 7.1. Measures of Democratic Quality Pre- and Postinvalid Vote Campaigns Source: Original data collection, Varieties of Democracy. Note: The figure presents average values of four measures of democratic quality for years immediately prior to and following an invalid vote campaign (N = 68 for Court Packing, Respect Constitution, Respect Media Freedom, N = 73 for Free from Intimidation).

The figure presents bars plotting the frequency of antiestablishment candidacies and antiestablishment candidates’ vote shares for years immediately prior to and following a presidential invalid vote campaign.

Anti-Establishment Candidates Pre- and Post-Invalid Vote Campaigns

From Chapter 7

Figure 7.2. Antiestablishment Candidates Pre- and Postinvalid Vote Campaigns Source: Original data collection, electoral management bodies. Note: The figure shows the frequency of antiestablishment candidacies, and their average vote share, in elections that immediately precede or follow an invalid vote campaign (N = 53 for candidacies, N = 34 for vote shares).

The figure presents bars plotting turnout and invalid vote rates for years immediately prior to and following a presidential invalid vote campaign.

Turnout, Invalid Voting in Presidential Elections Pre- and Post-Invalid Vote Campaigns

From Chapter 7

Figure 7.3. Turnout, Invalid Voting in Presidential Elections Pre- and Postinvalid Vote Campaigns Source: Original data collection, electoral management bodies. Note: The figure shows average voter turnout and the average invalid vote rate in elections that immediately precede or follow an invalid vote campaign (N = 52).

The figure plots lines presenting cross-time trends in gubernatorial turnout (first panel) and invalid voting (second panel) in departments where an invalid vote campaign did (not) occur.

Turnout and Invalid Voting, Pre- and Post-Invalid Vote Campaign in Peru’s Gubernatorial Elections

From Chapter 7

Figure 7.4. Turnout and Invalid Voting Pre- and Postinvalid Vote Campaign in Peru’s Gubernatorial Elections Source: Original data collection, Jurado Nacional de Elecciones. Note: The figure plots difference-in-differences estimates for turnout and invalid vote rates in departmental elections where an invalid vote campaign occurred in 2014 (N = 95). Whiskers represent 95% confidence intervals around point estimates. Models control for whether an invalid vote campaign occurred in 2018. For complete results, see table A7.2.

The figure plots lines presenting cross-time trends in presidential turnout (first panel) and invalid voting (second panel) in departments elections where an invalid vote campaign did (not) occur.

Turnout and Invalid Voting, Pre- and Post-Invalid Vote Campaign in Peru’s Presidential Elections

From Chapter 7

Figure 7.5. Turnout and Invalid Voting, Pre- and Postinvalid Vote Campaign in Peru’s Presidential Elections Source: Original data collection, Jurado Nacional de Elecciones. Note: The figure plots difference-in-differences estimates for turnout and invalid vote rates in departmental elections where an invalid vote campaign occurred in 2014 (N = 96). Whiskers represent 95% confidence intervals around point estimates. Models control for whether an invalid vote campaign occurred in 2018. For complete results, see table A7.2.

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None of the Above: Protest Voting in Latin American Democracies

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Measures of Democratic Quality Pre- and Post-Invalid Vote Campaigns

Anti-Establishment Candidates Pre- and Post-Invalid Vote Campaigns

Turnout, Invalid Voting in Presidential Elections Pre- and Post-Invalid Vote Campaigns

Turnout and Invalid Voting, Pre- and Post-Invalid Vote Campaign in Peru’s Gubernatorial Elections

Turnout and Invalid Voting, Pre- and Post-Invalid Vote Campaign in Peru’s Presidential Elections

None of the Above: Protest Voting in Latin American Democracies

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